Now that I have two weeks of predicting Strictly scores under my belt, I’m interested in looking at who gets voted into the dance-off. For example, a 2016 article in The Guardian by Julia Carter and Richard McManus reported that “after controlling for where the couple have come in the judges’ scoring, an ethnic minority celebrity is statistically significantly more likely to be in the bottom two and therefore to have received a lower public vote.

Lots of surprises during Week 5 of Strictly Series 16! Not from this week, but still a surprise. To predict Week 5 Strictly results, I retrained the same three models as I used previously for Week 4, adding in the Week 4 results as additional model inputs. Since this represents a 33% increase in available data about the performance of this series’ celebrities, I was hopeful the model predictions would improve.

The judges have their scores! Let’s see how they compare to the Week 4 predictions. celebrity professional dance fan gbr xgbr rfr actual Ashley Roberts Pasha Kovalev Tango 36 32 33 28 32 Charles Venn Karen Clifton Salsa 25 24 24 25 25 Danny John-Jules Amy Dowden Viennese Waltz 29 29 30 27 27 Faye Tozer Giovanni Pernice Rumba 36 30 28 29 29 Graeme Swann Oti Mabuse Jive 30 22 25 23 26 Joe Sugg Dianne Buswell Cha-cha-cha 28 26 28 25 26 Kate Silverton Aljaž Skorjanec Samba 28 25 26 26 20 Katie Piper Gorka Márquez Jive 21 17 17 20 18 Lauren Steadman AJ Pritchard Quickstep 25 23 24 26 25 Dr.